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Development of a Prediction Model for the Occurrence of Stenosis or Occlusion after Percutaneous Deep Venous

Eline Huizing1, Michiel A Schreve1, Steven Kum2

  • 1Department of Surgery, Northwest Clinics, 1815 JD Alkmaar, The Netherlands.

Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland)
|June 2, 2021
PubMed

Insights

A new model predicts future blockages after percutaneous deep venous arterialization (pDVA). This could personalize patient monitoring, reducing hospital visits for low-risk individuals and increasing them for high-risk cases.

Area of Science:

  • Vascular Surgery
  • Medical Imaging
  • Predictive Analytics

Background:

  • Chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) requires effective revascularization.
  • Percutaneous deep venous arterialization (pDVA) is a viable treatment for CLTI.
  • Early detection of stenosis or occlusion post-pDVA is crucial but requires frequent, burdensome monitoring.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a predictive model for stenosis or occlusion after pDVA.
  • To enable personalized follow-up protocols for pDVA patients.
  • To reduce patient burden associated with frequent hospital visits.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized peak systolic velocity and volume flow measurements from duplex ultrasound.
  • Analyzed data from 23 patients undergoing pDVA.
  • Developed a statistical model to identify risk factors for stenosis/occlusion.

Main Results:

  • A 20% decrease in duplex ultrasound values within 1 month significantly increased stenosis/occlusion risk.
  • The prediction model accurately estimated patient-specific risk.
  • 17 out of 23 patients developed stenosis or occlusion.

Conclusions:

  • A predictive model for post-pDVA stenosis/occlusion is feasible.
  • Personalized surveillance programs can optimize follow-up frequency.
  • Further validation in larger cohorts is needed.

Keywords:
chronic limb threatening ischemiaduplexjoint modelsocclusionpeak systolic velocitypredictionreinterventionrestenosisultrasoundvenous arterializationvolume flow

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