Progesterone/Oestradiol ratio can Better Predict Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection Outcomes than Absolute Progesterone...

Several parameters were proposed to predict the impact of premature luteinization on intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) outcomes such as isolated progesterone (P) level, progesterone to oocyte ratio, and progesterone/estradiol ratio (P/E2).

The aim of this study is to compare the predictive value of P/E2 ratio and isolated P level on the ovulation triggering day for pregnancy outcomes in fresh GnRH antagonist ICSI cycles.

A retrospective cohort study conducted in a university-affiliated in vitro fertilization center between January 2017 and April 2019.

The study included women who underwent their first- or second-ranked GnRH antagonist ICSI cycles with day-3 embryo transfer. P/E2 ratio was calculated as (P [ng/mL] × 1000)/E2 (pg/mL). Cutoff values of ≥1.5 ng/ml for high P (HP) and ≥0.55 for HP/E2 ratio were chosen based on the literature.

A receiver operating curve was performed to detect the predictability of serum P/E2 and P for the ongoing pregnancy rate. First, patients were divided according to either P level (low P < 1.5 ng/mL and HP ≥1.5 ng/mL) or P/E2 ratio (low P/E2 <0.55 and HP/E2 ≥ 0.55). Patients were further divided into four subgroups: (Group A: HP and HP/E2 ratio, Group B: low P and low P/E2 ratio, Group C: HP only, and Group D: HP/E2 only). A multivariate regression analysis models were used to account for the effect of the cycle confounders on the likelihood of pregnancy.

A total of 402 ICSI cycles were analyzed. The area under the curve was 0.67 and 0.59 for P/E2 and P, respectively. P/E2 showed a significant association with ongoing pregnancy (adjusted odds ratios [aOR]: 0.409, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.222-0.753, P = 0.004) while HP revealed no significant predictive value (aOR: 0.542, 95% CI 0.284-1.036, P = 0.064) after the multivariate analysis.

P elevation may not present as an independent predictor for cycle outcomes. P/E2 ratio has a better prognostic value than P alone in predicting pregnancy of GnRH antagonist cycles.