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Lina Sofía Palacio Mejía1, Jorge Leonel Wheatley Fernández2, Iliana Ordoñez Hernández3

  • 1Catedrática CONACyT Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. lpalacio@insp.mx.

Salud Publica De Mexico
|June 7, 2021
PubMed
Summary
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Mexico experienced a significant excess mortality in 2020, with over 326,000 additional deaths. This prolonged excess, particularly among older men, highlights the impact of socioeconomic factors and comorbidities on public health.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Demography

Background:

  • Excess mortality, defined as deaths above expected levels, is a key indicator of a population's health status.
  • Understanding excess mortality patterns is crucial for public health response and resource allocation during health crises.
  • Mexico's socioeconomic landscape and high prevalence of comorbidities may influence mortality outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the excess all-cause mortality in Mexico during the year 2020.
  • To analyze the temporal trends and demographic distribution of excess deaths.
  • To identify potential contributing factors to the observed excess mortality.

Main Methods:

  • Construction of an endemic channel using historical death data from 2015-2019.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Establishment of an epidemic threshold at the 90th percentile of historical death counts.
  • Comparison of observed death certificates against the endemic channel to quantify excess mortality.

    • Main Results:

    • A total of 326,612 excess deaths were recorded by week 53, representing a 45.1% increase above expected.
    • Peak excess mortality occurred in week 28 (98.0%), with a low in week 41 (35.2%).
    • After week 4, excess deaths predominantly affected men (51.3%), particularly those aged 45-64, though the highest absolute number of deaths was in individuals aged 60 and over.

    Conclusions:

    • Mexico faced a prolonged period of excess mortality in 2020, exceeding international comparisons.
    • Significant interstate variability in excess mortality was observed.
    • Socioeconomic conditions and a high prevalence of comorbidities are suggested as key factors contributing to Mexico's elevated mortality risk.