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Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase
Rida Sehar Kiani1, Shaukat Ali2, Moetasim Ashfaq3
1Department of Environmental Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan; Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Pakistan.
The Science of the Total Environment
|June 17, 2021
Summary
Future warming will increase water inflows in Pakistan's Upper Indus Basin, driven by enhanced snow and glacial melt. These changes, particularly pronounced at 2.0 °C warming, necessitate adaptive water management strategies for the region.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
- Water Resource Management
Background:
- Investigates future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan.
- Analyzes climate model data under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).
- Focuses on warming levels crossing Paris Agreement targets.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB).
- To assess the impact of global and regional warming thresholds on water resources.
- To inform effective water management strategies in Pakistan.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project.
- Performed hydrological simulations for historical, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global and regional warming scenarios.
- Analyzed projected changes in river inflows driven by precipitation and meltwater contributions.
Main Results:
- Global and regional warming thresholds are projected to be reached earlier than anticipated, with spatial non-linearity in GCM responses.
- Precipitation trends show a progressive increase, with stronger changes at higher warming levels.
- Hydrological simulations indicate a robust, seasonally varying increase in river inflows, particularly in October (RCP4.5) and April (RCP8.5), driven by increased snow and glacial melt.
Conclusions:
- Increased snow and glacial melt, especially at 2.0 °C warming, will significantly alter UIB hydrology.
- Projected increases in water inflows require proactive and adaptive water management planning.
- Findings provide crucial insights for sustainable water resource management in Pakistan amidst climate change.
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