Dynamic ensemble visualizations to support understanding for uncertain trajectories

When making decisions about uncertain spatial trajectories, such as storm forecasts, people rely on visualizations to support their understanding. Four experiments explored novel visualizations-dynamic ensembles. Nonexperts used visualizations to interpret probabilistic information about potential paths of a hurricane. Experiment 1 focused on global properties of the distribution, and showed dynamic ensembles imply a larger area at risk than traditional cones of uncertainty. Experiment 2 compared decisions with cones versus dynamic ensembles at specific individual locations. Dynamic ensembles offer more appreciation of risk outside the center of the distribution, and less abrupt in transitions from evacuation to nonevacuation choices. Experiment 3 compared decisions for dynamic ensembles versus static line ensembles. Similar evacuation rates across the two conditions suggest ensembles, rather than dynamics, are the more critical feature. Experiment 4 examined whether an additional dimension can be included in dynamic ensembles using color coding. Decisions reacted to this ancillary feature, with higher evacuation rates for locations threatened by more severe outcomes. Outcomes highlight the ability to systematically vary the level of risk communicated through the ensembles while also communicating the continuous nature of the risk. The overall findings show the viability of presenting uncertain spatial information using dynamic ensembles. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).