Do Local Sex Ratios Approximate Subjective Partner Markets? : Evidence from the German Family Panel

Sex ratios have widely been recognized as an important link between demographic contexts and behavior because changes in the ratio shift sex-specific bargaining power in the partner market. Implicitly, the literature considers individual partner market experiences to be a function of local sex ratios. However, empirical evidence on the correspondence between subjective partner availability and local sex ratios is lacking so far. In this paper, we analyzed how closely a set of different local sex ratio measures correlates with subjective partner market experiences. Linking a longitudinal German survey to population data for different entities (states, counties, municipalities), we used multilevel logistic regression models to explore associations between singles' subjective partner market experiences and various operationalizations of local sex ratios. Results suggest that local sex ratios correlated only weakly with subjective partner market experiences. Adult sex ratios based on broad age brackets, including those for lower-level entities, did not significantly predict whether individuals predominantly met individuals of their own sex. More fine-grained, age-specific sex ratios prove to be better predictors of subjective partner market experiences, in particular when age hypergamy patterns were incorporated. Nevertheless, the respective associations were only significant for selected measures. In a complementary analysis, we illustrate the validity of the subjective indicator as a predictor of relationship formation. In sum, our results suggest that subjective partner availability is not adequately represented by the broad adult sex ratio measures that are frequently used in the literature. Future research should be careful not to equate local sex ratios and conscious partner market experiences.