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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Nov 1, 2025

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Testing for multiple bubbles in the copper price: Periodically collapsing behavior.

Chi-Wei Su1, Xiao-Qing Wang2, Haotian Zhu3

  • 1School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.

Resources Policy
|June 25, 2021
PubMed
Summary

This study found four explosive bubbles in copper prices between 1980-2019 using the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approach. These price bubbles were linked to speculation and market imbalances.

Keywords:
Copper priceMacroeconomic factorsMildly explosive behaviorMultiple bubbles

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Financial Markets
  • Econometrics

Background:

  • Asset prices can deviate from fundamental values due to various market factors.
  • Understanding price bubbles is crucial for market stability and accurate asset pricing.
  • Previous research has explored bubble detection but often lacks robust date-stamping capabilities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the existence and timing of multiple explosive bubbles in the copper price.
  • To apply an advanced econometric technique for precise identification of bubble emergence and collapse.
  • To provide empirical evidence supporting or refuting the presence of speculative bubbles in copper markets.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approach for time series analysis.
  • Employed date-stamping strategies to identify the specific periods of bubble formation and bursting.
  • Analyzed copper price data from 1980-2019 to detect deviations from fundamental value.

Main Results:

  • Identified four distinct episodes of explosive price bubbles in the copper market over the 1980-2019 period.
  • Confirmed that copper prices deviated significantly from their fundamental values during these bubble periods.
  • Results align with asset pricing models incorporating both fundamental and bubble components.

Conclusions:

  • Multiple price bubbles in copper are driven by speculation, U.S. dollar depreciation, supply-demand imbalances, and financial crises.
  • Policymakers must monitor and manage bubble episodes to stabilize international copper prices.
  • Implementing restrictions on speculative behavior is recommended to mitigate excess price volatility.