Variation in Radiologists' Follow-Up Imaging Recommendations for Small Cystic Pancreatic Lesions

This study aimed to determine the incidence, identify imaging and patient factors, and measure individual radiologist variation associated with follow-up recommendations for small focal cystic pancreatic lesions (FCPLs), a common incidental imaging finding.

This institutional review board-approved retrospective study analyzed 146,709 reports from abdominal CTs and MRIs performed in a large academic hospital from July 1, 2016, to June 30, 2018. A trained natural language processing tool identified 4,345 reports with FCPLs, which were manually reviewed to identify those containing one or more <1.5-cm pancreatic cysts. For these patients, patient, lesion, and radiologist features and follow-up recommendations for FCPL were extracted. A nonlinear random-effects model estimated degree of variation in follow-up recommendations across radiologists at department and division levels.

Of 2,872 reports with FCPLs < 1.5 cm, 708 (24.7%) had FCPL-related follow-up recommendations. Average patient age was 67 years (SD ± 11). In all, 1,721 (60.0%) reports were for female patients; 59.3% of patients had only one cyst. In multivariable analysis, older patients had slightly lower follow-up recommendation rates (odds ratio [OR]: 0.98 [0.98-1.00] per additional year), and lesions associated with main duct dilatation and septation were more likely to have a follow-up recommendation (ORs: 1.93 [1.11-3.36] and 2.88 [1.89-4.38], respectively). Radiologist years in practice (P = .51), trainee presence (P = .21), and radiologist gender (P = .52) were not associated with increased follow-up recommendations. There was significant interradiologist variation in the Abdominal Imaging Division (P = .04), but not in Emergency Radiology (P = .31) or Cancer Imaging Divisions (P = .29).

Interradiologist variation significantly contributes to variability in follow-up imaging recommendations for FCPLs.