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Updated: Oct 31, 2025
Quantification and Whole Genome Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater and Air Samples
Published on: June 30, 2023
Probability and estimated risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the air travel system
Jenna K Pang1, Stephen P Jones1, Lindsay L Waite1
1The Boeing Company, USA.
Background:
As an emerging virus, SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of transmission during air travel is of high interest. This paper is a retrospective estimate of the probability of an infectious passenger in the air travel system transmitting the SARS-CoV-2 virus to a fellow passenger.
Methods:
Literature was reviewed from May-September 2020 to identify COVID-19 cases related to air travel. The studies were limited to publicly available literature for passengers; studies of flight crews were not reviewed. A novel quantitative approach was developed to estimate air travel transmission risk that considers secondary cases, the overall passenger population, and correction factors for asymptomatic transmission and underreporting.
Results:
There were at least 2866 index infectious passengers documented to have passed through the air travel system in a 1.4 billion passenger population. Using correction factors, the global risk of transmission during air travel is estimated at 1:1.7 million; acknowledging that assumptions exist around case detection rate and mass screenings. Uncertainty in the correction factors and a 95% credible interval indicate risk ranges from 1 case for every 712,000 travelers to 1 case for every 8 million travelers.
Conclusion:
The risk of COVID-19 transmission on an aircraft is low, even with infectious persons onboard.
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