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Does Publication History Predict Future Publication Output in Orthopaedics?
Madison L Goss1, Sarah McNutt2, Jesse E Bible1
1Orthopaedics and Rehabilitation, Penn State Health Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Hershey, USA.
Cureus
|July 1, 2021
Summary
Publication counts during orthopaedic training correlate with early career research output, but not long-term productivity. This highlights the need for a holistic review of research potential.
Area of Science:
- Orthopaedic Surgery
- Academic Medicine
- Research Productivity
Background:
- Publication numbers are a key metric for academic orthopaedic faculty evaluation.
- Assessing research productivity influences employment, compensation, and promotion decisions.
- Identifying predictors of high-output researchers aids leadership in faculty assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the correlation between publication output during training and early career stages in orthopaedic surgery.
- To identify reliable predictors of long-term research productivity for faculty evaluation.
Main Methods:
- A cohort of orthopaedic faculty from top US institutions was studied.
- Publication counts were collected from PubMed across training (medical school, residency, fellowship) and early career (0-5, 0-10 years post-fellowship).
- Statistical analysis was used to determine correlations between publication metrics.
Main Results:
- A strong positive correlation exists between total training publications and output in the first five years post-fellowship (r=0.717, P<0.0001).
- No significant correlations were found between training publications and output in the first 10 years post-fellowship.
- A moderate positive correlation was observed between medical school and residency publications (r=0.401, P<0.0001).
Conclusions:
- Publication counts during training and early career may not accurately predict long-term research potential.
- Department chairs should consider these findings when evaluating faculty and candidates.
- Program directors can use the moderate correlation from earlier training stages to support a holistic applicant review.
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