Prognostic importance of somatic and psychosocial variables after a first myocardial infarction

The prognostic importance of somatic and psychosocial variables after a first myocardial infarction was studied in 201 consecutive Gothenburg, Sweden men below 61 years of age who had survived a first myocardial infarction between December 1976 and December 1978. The maximum follow-up time was 100 months. The prognostic importance of somatic, social, and psychological variables was related to the endpoints of death, nonfatal reinfarction, and total events. During follow-up, 48 deaths and 37 nonfatal recurrences occurred. Four variables, none of them significantly correlated with each other, were related to risk of an endpoint. Being single increased risk of death (p less than 0.01) and risk of all events (p less than 0.001), whereas an index reflecting infarct size was correlated to risk of death (p less than 0.001). A prognostic index based upon data available at three months after the myocardial infarction (angina pectoris, hypertension, serum aspartate aminotransferase (S-ASAT) maximum, and smoking) was correlated to risk of nonfatal reinfarction (p less than 0.05). Use of sedatives was also related to risk of reinfarction (p less than 0.05) and to risk of total event (p less than 0.05). The probability of death, reinfarction, and total event was estimated within two and five years after the infarction for all combinations of the variables that were related to risk of an endpoint. It was thus demonstrated that the predictive power increased over time and that the somatic and psychosocial variables independently added information.