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Longitudinal variability in mortality predicts COVID-19 deaths.
1Department of Physiology and Pharmacology, Karolinska Institutet, SE-17177, Stockholm, Sweden. jon.lundberg@ki.se.
European Journal of Epidemiology
|July 4, 2021
Summary
Pre-pandemic death rate variability in European countries predicted COVID-19 mortality. Countries with higher winter death rate fluctuations faced greater excess mortality during the pandemic, indicating intrinsic susceptibility to viral respiratory diseases.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Viral Respiratory Diseases
Background:
- COVID-19 pandemic exhibited significant variation in mortality rates across European nations.
- Debate exists regarding the effectiveness of governmental measures in controlling disease spread and deaths.
- Identifying factors influencing national pandemic susceptibility is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether pre-pandemic factors could predict COVID-19 mortality.
- To determine if longitudinal variability in death rates correlates with pandemic-related excess mortality.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of longitudinal death rate variability during winter influenza seasons (2015-2019).
- Correlation analysis (Spearman's rank correlation) between pre-pandemic death rate variability and 2020 excess mortality.
- Comparison with demographic, economic, and healthcare system factors.
Main Results:
- A significant positive correlation was found between pre-pandemic death rate variability and COVID-19 excess mortality (Spearman's ρ = 0.68, p < 0.001).
- No significant correlation was observed with age, population density, latitude, GNP, health spending, ICU beds, urbanization, or vaccination rates.
- Pre-pandemic death rate variability emerged as a potential predictor of pandemic mortality.
Conclusions:
- Intrinsic national susceptibility to excess mortality from viral respiratory diseases, including COVID-19, may be linked to historical death rate variability.
- This variability appears to be a more significant predictor than traditional demographic, economic, or healthcare infrastructure factors.
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