Predictability in Contemporary Medicine.

Area of Science:

• Medical Statistics
• History of Medicine
• Clinical Decision-Making

Background:

• Medical practice increasingly relies on statistical-mathematical models.
• These models offer valuable insights but represent only a partial view of reality.
• Models are subjective interpretations influenced by historical context and researcher bias.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a historical overview of probabilistic medicine.
• To acknowledge the inherent fallibility and confutability of scientific models.
• To critique the current reliance on clinical guidelines for decision-making.

Main Methods:

• Historical analysis of the evolution of probabilistic medicine.
• Philosophical examination of scientific models and their limitations.
• Critical review of the role of clinical guidelines in contemporary healthcare.

Main Results:

• The development of probabilistic medicine is a gradual process linked to understanding disease complexity.
• Scientific models, including those in medicine, are imperfect and subject to revision.
• Clinical guidelines represent a complex aggregation of perspectives, potentially overshadowing individual patient needs.

Conclusions:

• Recognizing the limitations of statistical models is crucial for scientific integrity.
• A return to a more individualized, consultative approach to patient care is advocated.
• The 'aged' approach, emphasizing the patient-clinician relationship, is proposed as a valuable alternative to over-reliance on guidelines.