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Reopening International Borders without Quarantine: Contact Tracing Integrated Policy against COVID-19
Zidong Yu1, Xiaolin Zhu1, Xintao Liu1
1Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Summary
Digital contact tracing, combined with border restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), significantly reduces COVID-19 spread. This strategy can lower infectious populations by 92.11% and control daily cases effectively for safe border reopening.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Computational Biology
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- Global COVID-19 vaccination efforts aim to revive tourism economies by lifting social distancing and border restrictions.
- Developing effective border control strategies is crucial for managing health risks associated with eased quarantine measures.
- This study addresses the need for data-driven policies to balance public health and economic recovery.
Purpose of the Study:
- To computationally investigate the impact of integrated contact tracing policies on border reopening scenarios in Hong Kong.
- To forecast the pandemic's future development under various combinations of digital contact tracing, arrival population control, and community NPIs.
- To provide evidence-based recommendations for lifting border control policies while ensuring public health and economic recovery.
Main Methods:
- Reconstruction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using historical data.
- Application of a modified SEIR epidemic model incorporating 30% vaccination coverage.
- Simulation of different scenarios combining digital contact tracing, inbound population quotas, and community NPIs.
Main Results:
- Digital contact tracing with rapid isolation reduced the infectious population by 92.11% compared to scenarios without it.
- A daily inbound quota of 10,000 travelers, coupled with moderate-to-strong NPIs, controlled average daily cases to approximately 9 (95% CI: 7-12) over 60 days.
- The integration of digital contact tracing and NPIs proved effective in managing local virus transmission.
Conclusions:
- Digital contact tracing is a potent tool for mitigating local virus spread, particularly with moderate vaccination coverage.
- Implementing daily inbound quotas and robust community NPIs further enhances control over local infections.
- The findings offer scientific guidance for developing policies to reopen borders safely, supporting global economic recovery.
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