The mismeasure of conservation.

Area of Science:

• Conservation science
• Biodiversity protection
• Protected area management

Background:

• Protected areas and other effective area-based conservation interventions (OECAs) are crucial for biodiversity conservation.
• The primary goal is to achieve conservation impact, defined as avoided biodiversity loss and promoted recovery.
• Current targets for these interventions often fail to measure or inform about actual conservation impact.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the framing of current targets for area-based conservation interventions within the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.
• To demonstrate the feasibility of predicting conservation impact in space and time.
• To advocate for a shift towards impact-oriented targets and investment priorities.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of targets within the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.
• Development and application of methods to predict conservation impact spatially and temporally.
• Evaluation of the effectiveness of current measures in informing decision-makers.

Main Results:

• Current targets for area-based conservation interventions are predominantly based on measures that do not effectively inform about conservation impact.
• These measures risk misallocating limited conservation resources.
• Predicting conservation impact across different spatial and temporal scales is shown to be feasible.

Conclusions:

• A shift towards measuring and targeting conservation impact is essential for effective biodiversity outcomes.
• Predictive modeling of conservation impact can provide crucial guidance for setting global and jurisdictional targets.
• Reorienting investment priorities based on predicted impact can enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of conservation efforts.