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Updated: Oct 26, 2025

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A process-based approach to understanding and managing triggered seismicity.

Bradford H Hager1, James Dieterich2, Cliff Frohlich3

  • 1Earth Resources Laboratory, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA. bhhager@mit.edu.

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Human activities can trigger earthquakes. This study developed a new method using subsurface data and models to manage induced seismicity, successfully applied in an Italian oil field.

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Area of Science:

  • Geophysics
  • Earthquake Science
  • Petroleum Engineering

Background:

  • Human activities like fluid injection can trigger earthquakes by altering subsurface stress.
  • Current regulatory frameworks for managing induced seismicity are often empirical and have limited success.
  • Early research suggested fluid pressure cycling could control seismicity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and implement a multidisciplinary methodology for managing triggered seismicity.
  • To utilize comprehensive subsurface data for calibrating geomechanical and earthquake source physics models.
  • To validate predictive models against subsequent seismic observations.

Main Methods:

  • Development and testing of a novel, multidisciplinary approach.
  • Calibration of geomechanical and earthquake source physics models using detailed subsurface information.
  • Validation of models through comparison with post-calibration seismic observations.

Main Results:

  • Successful implementation of the methodology in the Val d'Agri oil field, southern Italy.
  • Demonstrated effective management of triggered seismicity in a producing hydrocarbon field.
  • The process-based method proved successful in controlling seismicity.

Conclusions:

  • A process-based, data-driven methodology can successfully manage triggered seismicity.
  • This approach offers a more robust alternative to empirical regulatory frameworks.
  • The methodology has the potential for broader application in mitigating induced seismicity globally.