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Words Representing Numeric Probabilities in Medical Writing Are Ambiguous and Misinterpreted
1School of Engineering, Mercer University, Macon, GA 31210, USA.
JSLS : Journal of the Society of Laparoendoscopic Surgeons
|August 6, 2021
Summary
Medical professionals show significant variability in interpreting words of estimative probability. This lack of consistent understanding hinders clear scientific communication and comprehension among physicians.
Area of Science:
- Medical Communication
- Medical Terminology
- Clinical Interpretation
Background:
- Words of estimative probability are frequently used in medical writing.
- Authors often have a specific numerical meaning in mind, but this is not conveyed to readers.
- This ambiguity can lead to misinterpretation in clinical contexts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the variability in the numerical interpretation of commonly used estimative probability words among medical doctors.
- To quantify the extent of agreement or disagreement in understanding these terms.
Main Methods:
- A survey was conducted with 131 American-trained medical doctors (MDs and DOs).
- Participants were asked to provide their interpretation of 27 commonly used estimative probability words.
- Statistical analyses were performed to evaluate the numeric meaning and compare interpretations.
Main Results:
- A significant variance in interpretation was observed for most words; 19 out of 27 words had a +/- 30% variance (60% total variance).
- Agreement on the numeric meaning was low, with 25 out of 27 words showing less than 38% agreement.
- Only two words demonstrated high numeric agreement (over 74%).
Conclusions:
- Words of estimative probability exhibit widely divergent interpretations among physicians.
- This variability renders scientific meaning incomprehensible, leading to communication breakdowns.
- Standardization or clarification of such terms is crucial for effective medical communication.
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