Older Adults' Choice of Patterns of Outdoor Physical Activity Duration: A Mixed Multinomial Logit Model

Outdoor physical activity duration is a key component of outdoor physical activity behavior of older adults, and therefore, an important determinant of their total physical activity levels. In order to develop a successful outdoor physical activity program, it is important to identify any heterogeneity in preferences for outdoor physical activity duration patterns among older adults. In addition, more insight is needed in the influence of environmental characteristics on duration choice for creating supportive neighborhood environments matching individuals' preferences. To this end, a mixed multinomial logit model is estimated based on one-week data collected among 336 respondents aged 60 or over in 2017 in Dalian, China. The present model formulation accounts for heterogeneity in individuals' preferences and allows for the analysis of substitution and complementary relationships between the different patterns of outdoor physical activity duration. Results indicate that older adults vary significantly in their preferences for each outdoor physical activity duration pattern. Moreover, short walking duration, short exercise duration and medium exercise duration are substitutes for medium walking duration while short walking duration and short exercise duration are complements for medium exercise duration in terms of individuals' outdoor physical activity duration preferences. In addition, we find that distance to the nearest park, footpath conditions and neighborhood aesthetics are associated with older adults' outdoor physical activity duration choice.