Explaining the MENA Paradox: Rising Educational Attainment, Yet Stagnant Female Labor Force Participation

Despite rapidly rising female educational attainment and the closing, if not reversal, of the gender gap in education, female labor force participation rates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remain low and stagnant. This is a phenomenon that has come to be known as the "MENA paradox". Even if increases in participation are observed, they are typically in the form of rising unemployment rather than employment.

We use multinomial logit models estimated, by country, on annual labor force survey data for four MENA countries - Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia - to simulate trends in female participation in different labor market states (public sector, private wage work, non-wage work, unemployment and non-participation) for married and unmarried women and men, of a given educational and age profile.

Our results confirm that the decline in the probability of public sector employment for educated women is associated with either an increase in unemployment or a decline in participation.

We argue that failure of employment rates to increase in line with women's rapidly rising educational attainment - the so-called MENA paradox -- can be primarily attributed to the change in opportunity structures facing educated women in the MENA region in the 2000s, rather than the supply-side factors traditionally emphasized in the literature to explain low female participation in MENA.

We argue that female labor force participation among educated women in four MENA countries - Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia -- is constrained by adverse developments in the structure of employment opportunities on the demand side. Specifically, the contraction in public sector employment opportunities has not been made up by a commensurate increase in opportunities in the formal private sector, leading to increases in female unemployment or declines in participation.