Spatiotemporal evolutionary analysis of rainfall erosivity during 1901-2017 in Beijing, China

Rainfall erosivity is regarded as one of the main factors affecting soil erosion. Based on 117-year monthly precipitation data of Beijing from 1901 to 2017, the  spatiotemporal evolutionary analysis of rainfall erosivity in Beijing were analyzed by using Theil-Sen median analysis (Sen), the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, R/S analysis method, cumulative anomaly method, MK mutation test method, Pettitt test, and wavelet analysis. The results showed that the average annual rainfall erosivity in Beijing ranged from 1080.6 to 6432.78 MJ • mm/(hm² • h • a), with an average value of 3465.06 MJ • mm/(hm² • h • a), showing a gradual decrease from the southeast to northwest. Regarding seasonal distribution, 86% of rainfall erosivity was mainly concentrated in summer. In the past 117 years, the annual rainfall erosivity in most areas of Beijing showed a downward trend, but its future trend also showed an increasing trend, indicating that Beijing, especially the northern part, was facing greater potential pressure from soil erosion. Through cross-validation of various methods, the abrupt change interval of rainfall erosivity in Beijing from 1901 to 2017 was from 1994 to 1997. The change in rainfall erosivity in Beijing had a strong oscillation in 32 years and a small periodic change in 15 and 7 years. The results will provide a decision-making basis for soil erosion control and water/soil conservation planning. Additionally, they will benefit and ensure national agricultural and food security.