[Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Forces Analysis of Carbon Storage in the Yellow River Delta Coastal Zone]

Exploring the changes of coastal carbon storage and its driving factors is of great significance for assessing regional carbon sink potential and formulating ecological sink enhancement strategies. Taking the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta as the research area， based on the annual land use/cover （LULC） data of the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta from 2000 to 2023， the linear regression， Theil-Sen trend analysis， Mann-Kendall test， coefficient of variation， Hurst index， land use transfer matrix， and geographical detector model were used to systematically reveal the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of carbon storage in the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta， the driving effect of LULC transformation， and the driving mechanism of spatial and temporal differentiation. The results show that： ① From 2000 to 2023， the carbon storage in the coastal zone of the Yellow River Delta decreased from inland to coastal areas， with a total net loss of approximately 1.54 Tg （calculated by C）， and showed a phased evolution of high-level fluctuation-stepwise decline-low-value platform. ②The overall stability of carbon storage was high， 80.69 % of the region remained stable， but 2.66 % of the region had mutated， and the carbon loss area accounted for 14.06 %. In the future， 16.26 % of the region will continue to face the risk of carbon loss， and only 5.25 % of the region will be expected to recover. ③ Carbon loss was mainly driven by human activities， and reclamation， urbanization， and the expansion of aquaculture ponds and salt pans were the core driving paths. Land use intensity and NDVI were the two core driving factors， and their explanatory power changed with time. The interaction of all factors showed two-factor and non-linear enhancement. The results of single factor detection and interactive detection showed that human activities had a significant leading role in the spatial and temporal differentiation of carbon storage and showed an increasing trend.