Impulsivity and risk-seeking as Bayesian inference under dopaminergic control

Bayesian models successfully account for several of dopamine (DA)'s effects on contextual calibration in interval timing and reward estimation. In these models, tonic levels of DA control the precision of stimulus encoding, which is weighed against contextual information when making decisions. When DA levels are high, the animal relies more heavily on the (highly precise) stimulus encoding, whereas when DA levels are low, the context affects decisions more strongly. Here, we extend this idea to intertemporal choice and probability discounting tasks. In intertemporal choice tasks, agents must choose between a small reward delivered soon and a large reward delivered later, whereas in probability discounting tasks, agents must choose between a small reward that is always delivered and a large reward that may be omitted with some probability. Beginning with the principle that animals will seek to maximize their reward rates, we show that the Bayesian model predicts a number of curious empirical findings in both tasks. First, the model predicts that higher DA levels should normally promote selection of the larger/later option, which is often taken to imply that DA decreases 'impulsivity,' and promote selection of the large/risky option, often taken to imply that DA increases 'risk-seeking.' However, if the temporal precision is sufficiently decreased, higher DA levels should have the opposite effect-promoting selection of the smaller/sooner option (higher impulsivity) and the small/safe option (lower risk-seeking). Second, high enough levels of DA can result in preference reversals. Third, selectively decreasing the temporal precision, without manipulating DA, should promote selection of the larger/later and large/risky options. Fourth, when a different post-reward delay is associated with each option, animals will not learn the option-delay contingencies, but this learning can be salvaged when the post-reward delays are made more salient. Finally, the Bayesian model predicts correlations among behavioral phenotypes: Animals that are better timers will also appear less impulsive.