Predicting the risk of postoperative acute kidney injury: development and assessment of a novel predictive nomogram

This study aimed to establish and internally verify the risk nomogram of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with renal cell carcinoma.

We retrospectively collected data from 559 patients with renal cell carcinoma from June 2016 to May 2019 and established a prediction model. Twenty-six clinical variables were examined by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis, and variables related to postoperative AKI were determined. The prediction model was established by multiple logistic regression analysis. Decision curve analysis was conducted to evaluate the nomogram.

Independent predictors of postoperative AKI were smoking, hypertension, surgical time, blood glucose, blood uric acid, alanine aminotransferase, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and radical nephrectomy. The C index of the nomogram was 0.825 (0.790-0.860) and 0.814 was still obtained in the internal validation. The nomogram had better clinical benefit when the intervention was decided at the threshold probabilities of >4% and <79% for patients and doctors, respectively.

This novel postoperative AKI nomogram incorporating smoking, hypertension, the surgical time, blood glucose, blood uric acid, alanine aminotransferase, the estimated glomerular filtration rate, and radical nephrectomy is convenient for facilitating the individual postoperative risk prediction of AKI in patients with renal cell carcinoma.