Development of a Prognostic Nomogram for Acute Myeloid Leukemia on IGHD Gene Family

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a common haematological disease in adults. The overall survival (OS) remains unsatisfactory. It is critical to identify potential prognostic biomarkers and develop a nomogram that predicts overall survival in patients with AML.

We used gene expression dataset and clinical data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) to identify differential expression analysis, survival analysis, and prognostic value of IGHD gene family (IGHDs) in AML patients. A risk score model was built through Lasso analysis and multivariate Cox regression. We also developed a nomogram and evaluated its accuracy with Harrell's Harmony Index (C-index) and calibration curve. Last, the Therapeutically Applicable Research to Generate Effective Treatments (TARGET) database was used for external validation.

IGHD1-20 mRNA expression level was an independent prognostic factor for patients with AML by multivariate analysis. After Lasso analysis and multivariate Cox regression, we constructed a 3-gene model (IGHD1-1, IGHD1-20, IGHD3-16) associated with OS in AML. Risk score and age were validated as independent risk factors for prognosis and were used to build a nomogram. The C index and calibration curve results show that its ability to predict 1-year, 3-year and 5-year overall survival is accurate.

The mRNA level of IGHDs was increased in AML patients. IGHD1-20 was an independent risk factor for OS in AML patients. The IGHDs risk model (IGHD1-1, IGHD1-20, IGHD3-16) relates to the OS of AML patients. The nomogram, including risk score and age, can conveniently and effectively predict the overall survival rate of patients.