Soccer Scores, Short-Term Mood and Fertility

Area of Science:

• Socioeconomics
• Behavioral Economics
• Demography

Background:

• Previous studies indicate that emotional responses to seemingly minor events, like sports outcomes, influence various human behaviors.
• These mood shocks have been linked to crime, investment decisions, and political leanings, suggesting a broad impact of emotional states.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the causal relationship between mood shocks from unexpected soccer match results and fertility rates in Spain.
• To determine if negative emotional responses to sports events affect reproductive behavior.

Main Methods:

• Utilized betting odds and actual match scores from Spanish soccer leagues (2001-2015) to quantify mood shocks.
• Linked these mood shocks to monthly birth data aggregated by province.
• Employed placebo tests to ensure the robustness of the findings.

Main Results:

• A statistically significant, albeit small, decrease in births was observed approximately nine months after unexpected losses by local soccer teams.
• The magnitude of the fertility decrease was positively correlated with the unexpectedness of the loss.
• The effect was more substantial in provinces demonstrating greater support for the local soccer team.

Conclusions:

• Unexpected negative outcomes in soccer matches can lead to a measurable reduction in fertility, supporting the idea that emotional shocks influence reproductive decisions.
• Findings align with prospect theory's prediction of gain-loss asymmetry, where losses have a more significant emotional impact than equivalent gains.
• This research highlights the subtle yet discernible influence of collective emotional experiences on demographic trends.