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Temperature and fertility: Evidence from Spain.

Risto Conte Keivabu1, Marco Cozzani2, Joshua Wilde1

  • 1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

Population Studies
|August 21, 2024
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Hot days (≥25°C) in Spain were found to decrease total fertility rates nine months later. This impact on fertility was consistent across various demographic and environmental factors, suggesting potential climate change effects on birth patterns.

Keywords:
SpainTFRfertilityheattemperature

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Environmental Science
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Global fertility rates are declining, particularly in developed nations.
  • Climate change is increasingly recognized for its potential impacts on human health and societal functions.
  • Understanding environmental influences on reproductive behavior is crucial for population dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between daily mean temperature and fertility rates in Spain.
  • To determine if elevated temperatures affect the total fertility rate.
  • To analyze potential variations in this effect across different demographic and environmental factors.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized administrative data from Spain (2010-2018).
  • Integrated daily meteorological data, specifically daily mean temperature.
  • Employed statistical analysis to identify correlations between temperature and fertility outcomes.

Main Results:

  • A statistically significant decrease in total fertility rate was observed following exposure to hot days (≥25°C).
  • The effect on fertility manifested nine months after the high-temperature exposure.
  • No substantial heterogeneities were found based on mother's age, education, newborn's sex, climate zone, or air conditioning prevalence.

Conclusions:

  • Daily mean temperature, particularly heat exposure, negatively impacts fertility rates in Spain.
  • Climate change may influence the timing of births and overall fertility trends.
  • These findings are relevant for low-fertility countries experiencing rapid population aging and facing climate change impacts.