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A dynamical study of SARS-COV-2: A study of third wave

Xiao-Ping Li1, Ye Wang2, Muhammad Altaf Khan3

  • 1College of Mathematics and Information Science, Xiangnan University, Chenzhou 423000, P. R. China.

Results in Physics
|August 30, 2021
PubMed

Insights

A new mathematical model accurately predicts the COVID-19 third wave peak in Pakistan for May 6, 2021. The model demonstrates effective parameter strategies to decrease coronavirus infection cases.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The ongoing global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic poses a significant threat, necessitating accurate prediction models for infection surges.
  • Understanding and forecasting the peak of infection waves are crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a novel mathematical model for predicting the third wave of coronavirus infection.
  • To estimate the infection peak and assess the impact of control parameters on COVID-19 spread in Pakistan.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized reported COVID-19 cases in Pakistan from March 6, 2021, to April 30, 2021.
  • Developed a mathematical model to fit the observed data and analyze epidemic dynamics.
  • Investigated model stability and performed sensitivity analysis on key parameters.

Main Results:

  • The proposed mathematical model demonstrated accurate fitting to the collected data.
  • The basic reproduction number was calculated, and the model's stability was confirmed for the disease-free equilibrium.
  • Graphical analysis showed that specific parameters can significantly reduce infection cases during the third wave.

Conclusions:

  • The study successfully predicted the third wave infection peak in Pakistan to be May 6, 2021.
  • The developed model and identified parameters offer a valuable tool for predicting and managing COVID-19 outbreaks in other countries.
  • Mathematical modeling provides critical insights for public health strategies during pandemics.

Keywords:
Mathematical modelNumerical simulationsSARS-COV2Stability resultsThird wave reported cases

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