Predictive Modeling for Adverse Events and Risk Stratification Programs for People Receiving Cancer Treatment

Emergency department visits and hospitalizations are common among people receiving cancer treatment, accounting for a large proportion of spending in oncology care and negatively affecting quality of life. As oncology care shifts toward value- and quality-based payment models, there is a need to develop interventions that can prevent these costly and low-value events among people receiving cancer treatment. Risk stratification programs have the potential to address this need and optimally would consist of three components: (1) a risk stratification algorithm that accurately identifies patients with modifiable risk(s), (2) intervention(s) that successfully reduce this risk, and (3) the ability to implement the risk algorithm and intervention(s) in an adaptable and sustainable way. Predictive modeling is a common method of risk stratification, and although a number of predictive models have been developed for use in oncology care, they have rarely been tested alongside corresponding interventions or developed with implementation in clinical practice as an explicit consideration. In this article, we review the available published predictive models for treatment-related toxicity or acute care events among people receiving cancer treatment and highlight challenges faced when attempting to use these models in practice. To move the field of risk-stratified oncology care forward, we argue that it is critical to evaluate predictive models alongside targeted interventions that address modifiable risks and to demonstrate that these two key components can be implemented within clinical practice to avoid unplanned acute care events among people receiving cancer treatment.