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Differences in worst-case scenarios calculated by fixed length and rolling average methods in professional soccer
José M Oliva-Lozano1, Isabel Martín-Fuentes1, Víctor Fortes2
1Health Research Centre. University of Almería. Almería, Spain.
Biology of Sport
|September 3, 2021
Summary
Worst-case scenario (WCS) analysis in professional soccer players reveals fixed length methods significantly underestimate total distance (TD), high-speed running distance (HSRD), and sprint distance (SPD). Rolling averages are recommended for accurate WCS assessment in match-play.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Biomechanics
- Performance Analysis
Background:
- Worst-case scenarios (WCS) are crucial for understanding peak physical demands in elite athletes.
- Accurate WCS calculation is essential for effective training program design and injury prevention in professional soccer.
- Previous methods for WCS analysis may not fully capture the intensity of match-play across different playing positions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare worst-case scenarios (WCS) for total distance (TD), high-speed running distance (HSRD), and sprint distance (SPD) in professional soccer players.
- To evaluate the impact of fixed length versus rolling average methods on WCS calculations across various playing positions.
- To determine the optimal method for WCS analysis in professional soccer match-play.
Main Methods:
- The study analyzed data from professional soccer players over a three-mesocycle competitive period.
- Worst-case scenarios (WCS) for TD, HSRD, and SPD were calculated using fixed length and rolling average methods across four time windows (1, 3, 5, 10 minutes).
- Data were analyzed based on playing position: central defender, full-back, midfielder, wide midfielder, and forward.
Main Results:
- A significant effect of calculation method (fixed length vs. rolling average) was observed for TD, HSRD, and SPD (p < 0.001).
- Significant interactions between the calculation method and WCS duration were found for TD, HSRD, and SPD (p < 0.001).
- Fixed length methods consistently underestimated WCS for TD, HSRD, and SPD across all analyzed playing positions.
Conclusions:
- Fixed length methods significantly underestimate worst-case scenarios (WCS) for key distance-based variables in professional soccer players.
- Rolling average methods provide a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of peak physical demands during match-play.
- The findings recommend the adoption of rolling average methods for robust WCS analysis in professional soccer performance evaluation.
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