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Updated: Oct 21, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
A landscape-scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors
Isabel M Rojas1, Megan K Jennings1,2, Erin Conlisk1,3
1Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, USA.
Conservation planning must consider multiple stressors, not just climate. Identifying "super-refugia" sites, areas with low exposure to climate and human impacts, is crucial for protecting biodiversity and informing protected area expansion.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Climate refugia are critical for species persistence, but other anthropogenic stressors like altered fire and hydrology regimes also threaten habitats.
- Conservation efforts focused solely on climate may be undermined by unaddressed human-induced habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation.
- Advances in quantifying refugial capacity across multiple stressors are vital for effective conservation planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a novel conceptual framework, the domains of refugia, for assessing conservation refugial capacity by identifying areas with low exposure to multiple anthropogenic stressors.
- To apply this framework to a Southern California landscape to identify and evaluate potential super-refugia sites.
- To inform conservation strategies and protected area network expansion by highlighting underrepresented refugial areas.
Main Methods:
- Developed the domains of refugia conceptual approach, integrating environmental variability, resilience thresholds, and stressor extent/intensity.
- Applied the framework to a Southern California landscape, assessing exposure to stressors including extreme temperatures, fire, altered hydrology, and recreational trails.
- Quantified differences in stressor exposure between identified super-refugia sites and the surrounding landscape.
Main Results:
- Identified super-refugia sites characterized by significantly lower exposure to extremely warm summers (30% less), fire events (20% less), altered river channels/riparian areas (10% less), and recreational trails (50% less).
- Approximately 8200 km² of potential super-refugia sites were identified for certain natural communities within the study area.
- These identified super-refugia sites are currently underrepresented in the existing protected area network.
Conclusions:
- The domains of refugia framework provides a robust method for assessing conservation potential across multiple anthropogenic stressors.
- Integrating multiple stressors into refugia identification is essential for comprehensive biodiversity conservation planning.
- Findings underscore the need to expand protected areas to encompass identified super-refugia sites to enhance long-term biodiversity persistence.
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