Demographic models of the reproductive process: Past, interlude, and future

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Reproductive Science
• Computational Social Science

Background:

• Mechanistic models of the reproductive process experienced a decline in scholarly interest after the early 1980s.
• Fertility research subsequently relied on descriptive work and micro-level data analysis, leading to fragmentation between empirical research, theory building, and forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

• To outline the reasons for the decline in mechanistic modeling of reproduction.
• To describe advancements in computational modeling and statistical computing that facilitate a new generation of mechanistic models.
• To introduce a novel mechanistic model for reproductive processes and demonstrate its utility.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of historical trends in fertility research and modeling.
• Review of developments in computational modeling and statistical computing relevant to demographic research.
• Introduction and application of a new mechanistic model for family building.

Main Results:

• Identified popularization of statistical software and limitations of early models as key drivers of the decline in mechanistic modeling.
• Highlighted advancements in computational power and statistical techniques enabling sophisticated new models.
• Demonstrated the capacity of the new model to coherently formulate and test theories and inform projections.

Conclusions:

• The field of fertility research can benefit from a resurgence of mechanistic modeling.
• New computational and statistical tools provide the foundation for a new generation of sophisticated and integrated models.
• The proposed model offers a framework for advancing theoretical understanding and predictive accuracy in reproductive science.