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Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world
Dan Welsby1, James Price2, Steve Pye2
1Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK. daniel.welsby.14@ucl.ac.uk.
Nature
|September 9, 2021
Summary
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, 60% of oil and gas, and 90% of coal must remain unextracted. Global oil and gas production must decline 3% annually until 2050.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Energy Systems Analysis
- Environmental Policy
Background:
- The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
- Fossil fuels remain dominant, necessitating a significant reduction in their use to meet climate targets.
- Current energy systems require substantial transformation to align with global climate goals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the quantity of fossil fuels that must remain unextracted globally and regionally to achieve a 50% probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
- To assess the required annual decline rate in global oil and gas production.
- To identify the implications for existing and planned fossil fuel projects.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a global energy systems model to simulate fossil fuel extraction scenarios.
- Quantified unextracted fossil fuel reserves (oil, methane gas, coal) needed for a 1.5°C carbon budget.
- Estimated annual production decline rates for oil and gas.
Main Results:
- By 2050, approximately 60% of oil and fossil methane gas reserves, and 90% of coal, must remain unextracted.
- This represents a substantial increase in unextractable fossil fuels compared to a 2°C target, especially for oil.
- Global oil and gas production requires a 3% annual decline until 2050, implying immediate peak production in most regions.
Conclusions:
- Meeting the 1.5°C target necessitates leaving vast amounts of fossil fuels in the ground.
- Numerous operational and planned fossil fuel projects are likely unviable under a 1.5°C pathway.
- The study may underestimate required changes due to uncertainties in negative emission technologies and the need for >50% probability.
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