A Three-Domain Scoring System to Customize the Risk of Relapse of Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma

the validation of a new scoring model considering the principal risk factors of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) relapse.

we evaluated all DTC patients treated with thyroidectomy and radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy. Three domains were considered: the demographic domain (age and gender), the surgical domain (histology and the American Thyroid Association risk categories), and the RAI-related domain (pre-RAI thyroglobulin and post-therapeutic ¹³¹I whole-body scan). The progression-free survival was assessed. The patients' sample was randomly split into a training and validation set. The three-domain score was calculated as the weighted sum of the levels of each significant factor, then scaled to an integer range (0-100) and, finally, stratified into terciles: mild risk 0-33, moderate risk 34-66, and severe risk 67-100.

907 DTC patients were included. The RAI-related domain was the most relevant factor in the score calculation. The tercile stratification identified significantly different survival curves: patients within the two upper terciles showed approximately 6 to 30 times more progressive risk than patients at mild risk.

we have validated a three-domain scoring system and the principal impact on this score is provided by the peri-RAI findings, whose prognostic role seems to be essential in risk identification.