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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics between healthcare workers and community

Lemjini Masandawa1, Silas Steven Mirau1, Isambi Sailon Mbalawata2

  • 1School of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania.

Results in Physics
|September 13, 2021
PubMed

Insights

Protecting healthcare workers and the public from COVID-19 requires both personal protective equipment and community control measures. Mathematical modeling shows these interventions significantly reduce disease transmission.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant risk to various populations, particularly healthcare workers due to high patient contact rates.
  • Existing mathematical models often lack the integration of public control measures and healthcare worker compartments.
  • Integrating these elements is crucial for understanding disease dynamics and evaluating intervention effectiveness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel mathematical model (SWEHR) incorporating public control measures and healthcare workers as distinct compartments.
  • To analyze the impact of personal protective equipment (PPE) and public health interventions on COVID-19 transmission.
  • To identify key parameters influencing disease spread and assess model identifiability.

Main Methods:

  • Development of the SWEHR compartmental model: Susceptible (S), Healthcare workers (W), Exposed (E), Symptomatic infectious (I), Asymptomatic infectious (A), Hospitalized (H), Recovered (R).
  • Numerical simulation using the Runge-Kutta fourth-order method.
  • Sensitivity analysis and parameter identifiability assessment using the least squares method.

Main Results:

  • The basic reproduction number (R0) was initially calculated at 2.8540, indicating disease presence without interventions.
  • Introduction of personal protective equipment (PPE) and public control measures reduced R0 to 0.4606, signifying disease absence.
  • Sensitivity analysis identified critical parameters influencing COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • Effective use of personal protective equipment by healthcare workers is vital for their protection.
  • Implementation of public control measures is essential for minimizing COVID-19 spread in the community.
  • The study underscores the importance of integrated strategies combining individual protection and public health interventions for pandemic control.

Keywords:
Basic reproduction numberC0VID-19 modelParameter estimationProtective equipmentPublic control measures

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