Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Computational Modeling

Background:

• The United States is gradually reopening its economy alongside COVID-19 vaccine distribution.
• A lack of consensus exists among local authorities regarding safe reopening strategies.
• Understanding the balance between vaccine-induced immunity and transmission risks is critical.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between vaccine rollout progress and the risks of disease transmission during economic reopening.
• To model the impact of increased social interaction on COVID-19 fatality rates.

Main Methods:

• Development of a high-resolution agent-based model (ABM).
• The ABM was calibrated using demographic, spatial, and mobility data from New Rochelle, NY.
• Simulation of reopening scenarios with varying vaccination rates and social gathering access.

Main Results:

• A 1% daily increase in access to social gatherings (leisure, households) could elevate the COVID-19 fatality rate by 28% within three months, given current vaccination rates.
• The pace of vaccine rollout significantly influences the safety of reopening strategies.
• Doubling the current vaccination rate is projected to enable safe and rapid economic reopening.

Conclusions:

• Current reopening strategies, without accelerated vaccination, pose significant risks of increased COVID-19 fatalities.
• Vaccine rollout is a pivotal factor in determining the feasibility and safety of economic reopening.
• Policy recommendations should prioritize vaccination acceleration to mitigate transmission risks during reopening.