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Updated: Oct 20, 2025

Viral Concentration Determination Through Plaque Assays: Using Traditional and Novel Overlay Systems
Published on: November 4, 2014
Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
Henri Berestycki1,2, Benoît Desjardins3,4, Bruno Heintz4
1École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales and CNRS, CAMS, Paris, France. hb@ehess.fr.
Abstract:
Plateaus and rebounds of various epidemiological indicators are widely reported in Covid-19 pandemics studies but have not been explained so far. Here, we address this problem and explain the appearance of these patterns. We start with an empirical study of an original dataset obtained from highly precise measurements of SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater over nine months in several treatment plants around the Thau lagoon in France. Among various features, we observe that the concentration displays plateaus at different dates in various locations but at the same level. In order to understand these facts, we introduce a new mathematical model that takes into account the heterogeneity and the natural variability of individual behaviours. Our model shows that the distribution of risky behaviours appears as the key ingredient for understanding the observed temporal patterns of epidemics.
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