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Confidence guides priority between forthcoming tasks.

David Aguilar-Lleyda1,2, Vincent de Gardelle3

  • 1Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, CNRS and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, 112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75013, Paris, France. aguilarlleyda@gmail.com.

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Confidence, not just performance, influences task prioritization. This study shows that people choose which future tasks to tackle based on their confidence in completing them, demonstrating confidence

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Neuroscience
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Humans possess metacognitive abilities, including estimating confidence in their decisions.
  • Understanding how confidence influences future behavior is crucial for fields like cognitive psychology and neuroscience.
  • Existing research highlights confidence's role in behavior regulation, but its independent effect on task prioritization needs further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether confidence in a perceptual task influences the prioritization of future trials, independent of actual task performance.
  • To experimentally dissociate confidence from performance to isolate the effect of confidence on behavioral choices.

Main Methods:

  • Participants performed a perceptual task involving color discrimination (blue vs. red).
  • The experiment manipulated the mean and variability of circle colors to create conditions matched for performance but differing in confidence.
  • Participants then chose the order of future trials, allowing assessment of prioritization based on confidence levels.

Main Results:

  • Prioritization of one condition over another was directly associated with higher confidence in that condition.
  • This relationship between confidence and prioritization was observed both across individuals and within individuals.
  • Changes in confidence, accuracy, condition, and response times predicted prioritization choices, confirming confidence's role.

Conclusions:

  • Confidence, independent of task performance, significantly guides the prioritization of future tasks.
  • These findings strengthen the evidence for confidence's role as a key regulator of behavioral choices and task management.
  • The study provides novel insights into the metacognitive control of decision-making and future action planning.