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Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis and Optimal Control Strategies for a New Rumor Spreading Model with Comprehensive

Tingting Li1,2, Youming Guo1,2

  • 1School of Science, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin, 541004 Guangxi People's Republic of China.

Qualitative Theory of Dynamical Systems
|September 20, 2021
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a new model to combat rumor spreading, like COVID-19 misinformation, using interventions such as education and legal punishment. Different strategies offer flexible control for managing public health information.

Keywords:
Basic reproduction numberComprehensive interventionsCost-effectiveness analysisGlobally asymptotically stableOptimal controlRumor spreading

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Area of Science:

  • Mathematical modeling
  • Epidemiology
  • Public health

Background:

  • The rapid spread of misinformation, exemplified by COVID-19 rumors, poses significant societal harm.
  • Controlling the dissemination of untrue statements is crucial for mitigating negative impacts on public well-being.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and analyze a novel mathematical model for rumor spreading incorporating comprehensive interventions.
  • To quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various control strategies against misinformation.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a rumor spreading model with parameters for background detection, public education, official debunking, and legal punishment.
  • Calculation of the basic reproduction number and stability analysis of model equilibria.
  • Application of optimal control theory to derive optimal intervention strategies.
  • Numerical simulations of 11 distinct control strategies.

Main Results:

  • The basic reproduction number was calculated, and the stability of equilibria was mathematically proven.
  • Optimal control pairs were derived, leading to the simulation of various intervention strategies.
  • Analysis of incremental cost-effectiveness and infection averted ratios revealed that optimal strategies vary depending on the perspective taken.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a flexible framework for developing effective control strategies against rumor propagation.
  • Findings support tailored approaches to misinformation management based on specific public health or security objectives.