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Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis and Optimal Control Strategies for a New Rumor Spreading Model with Comprehensive
Tingting Li1,2, Youming Guo1,2
1School of Science, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin, 541004 Guangxi People's Republic of China.
Qualitative Theory of Dynamical Systems
|September 20, 2021
Summary
This study introduces a new model to combat rumor spreading, like COVID-19 misinformation, using interventions such as education and legal punishment. Different strategies offer flexible control for managing public health information.
Area of Science:
- Mathematical modeling
- Epidemiology
- Public health
Background:
- The rapid spread of misinformation, exemplified by COVID-19 rumors, poses significant societal harm.
- Controlling the dissemination of untrue statements is crucial for mitigating negative impacts on public well-being.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and analyze a novel mathematical model for rumor spreading incorporating comprehensive interventions.
- To quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various control strategies against misinformation.
Main Methods:
- Development of a rumor spreading model with parameters for background detection, public education, official debunking, and legal punishment.
- Calculation of the basic reproduction number and stability analysis of model equilibria.
- Application of optimal control theory to derive optimal intervention strategies.
- Numerical simulations of 11 distinct control strategies.
Main Results:
- The basic reproduction number was calculated, and the stability of equilibria was mathematically proven.
- Optimal control pairs were derived, leading to the simulation of various intervention strategies.
- Analysis of incremental cost-effectiveness and infection averted ratios revealed that optimal strategies vary depending on the perspective taken.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a flexible framework for developing effective control strategies against rumor propagation.
- Findings support tailored approaches to misinformation management based on specific public health or security objectives.
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