Air quality prediction using CNN+LSTM-based hybrid deep learning architecture

Air pollution prediction based on variables in environmental monitoring data gains further importance with increasing concerns about climate change and the sustainability of cities. Modeling of the complex relationships between these variables by sophisticated methods in machine learning is a promising field. The objectives of this work are to develop a supervised model for the prediction of air pollution by using real sensor data and to transfer the model between cities. The combination of a convolutional neural network and a long short-term memory deep neural network model was proposed to predict the concentration of air pollutants in multiple locations of a city by using spatial-temporal relationships. Two approaches have been adopted: the univariate model contains the information of one pollutant whereas the multivariate model contains the information of all pollutants and meteorology data for prediction. The study was carried out for different pollutants which are in the publicly available data of the cities of Barcelona, Kocaeli, and İstanbul. The hyperparameters of the model (filter, frame, and batch sizes; number of convolutional/LSTM layers and hidden units; learning rate; and parameters for sample selection, pooling, and validation) were tuned to determine the architecture that achieved the lowest test error. The proposed model improved the prediction performance (measured by the root mean square error) by 11-53% for particulate matter, 20-31% for ozone, 9-47% for nitrogenoxides, and 18-46% for sulfurdioxide with respect to the 1-hidden layer long short-term memory networks utilized in the literature. The multivariate model without using meteorological data revealed the best results. Regarding transfer learning, the network weights were transferred from the source city to the target city. The model has more accurate prediction performance with the transfer of the network from Kocaeli to İstanbul as those neighbor cities have similar air pollution and meteorological characteristics.