Spring arctic oscillation as a trigger of summer drought in Siberian subarctic over the past 1494 years

Rapid changes in the hydrological and temperature regimes over the past decades at the northern latitudes enhance significantly permafrost degradation accelerating carbon release, increase the frequency of drought events and extensive wildfires. However, the mechanisms and dynamics driving drought events and their influence on Siberian forests are currently the subject of numerous research activities. Newly developed and annually resolved stable carbon and oxygen isotope chronologies of larch tree-ring cellulose (δ¹³C_cell and δ¹⁸O_cell) for the period 516-2009 CE allowed the reconstruction of July precipitation and Arctic Oscillation (AO) in May, respectively. Unprecedented drought events occurred towards twentieth-twenty-first centuries as indicated by the July precipitation reconstruction. Positive AO phases in May were most pronounced during the second part of the first millennium, but also increased in frequency in the modern period of the twentieth-twenty-first centuries. Negative AO phases are associated with cold anomalies and show a remarkable decrease in the nineteenth century caused by a series of major volcanic eruptions. Our findings help explaining the increased frequency of Siberian forest fires over the past decades in Central Siberia consistent with a reduction of summer precipitation, triggered by a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in May.