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Confidence in evaluations and value-based decisions reflects variation in experienced values.
Julian Quandt1, Bernd Figner1, Rob W Holland1
1Behavioural Science Institute.
Journal of Experimental Psychology. General
|September 27, 2021
Summary
Confidence in value-based decisions stems from the variability of past experiences. Higher variation in experienced values leads to greater confidence in evaluations and choices.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Neuroeconomics
- Decision Science
Background:
- Confidence in evaluations and decisions is common.
- This confidence is linked to the accuracy of judgments.
- Understanding the basis of confidence is crucial for decision-making research.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between confidence and the variation of underlying value distributions.
- To provide causal evidence for the role of value distribution variation in confidence.
- To explore this relationship in both controlled experiments and naturalistic settings.
Main Methods:
- Systematically manipulated value distribution variation in two preregistered experiments.
- Collected self-reported value distributions for natural food items in a third preregistered experiment.
- Examined confidence in evaluations and choices between items.
Main Results:
- Causal evidence confirmed that value distribution variation influences confidence.
- Confidence in evaluating natural food items correlated with value distribution variation.
- Variation in experienced values for choice pairs affected confidence in choice correctness.
Conclusions:
- Confidence in value-based decisions reflects the variation of an underlying value distribution.
- This value distribution is shaped by previously experienced values.
- Findings align with broader decision-making research where confidence tracks evidence distribution variation.
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