Overview of Machine Learning Process Modelling

Much research has been conducted in the area of machine learning algorithms; however, the question of a general description of an artificial learner's (empirical) performance has mainly remained unanswered. A general, restrictions-free theory on its performance has not been developed yet. In this study, we investigate which function most appropriately describes learning curves produced by several machine learning algorithms, and how well these curves can predict the future performance of an algorithm. Decision trees, neural networks, Naïve Bayes, and Support Vector Machines were applied to 130 datasets from publicly available repositories. Three different functions (power, logarithmic, and exponential) were fit to the measured outputs. Using rigorous statistical methods and two measures for the goodness-of-fit, the power law model proved to be the most appropriate model for describing the learning curve produced by the algorithms in terms of goodness-of-fit and prediction capabilities. The presented study, first of its kind in scale and rigour, provides results (and methods) that can be used to assess the performance of novel or existing artificial learners and forecast their 'capacity to learn' based on the amount of available or desired data.