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The intuitive conceptualization and perception of variance
Elizaveta Konovalova1, Thorsten Pachur2
1Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom; Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
Cognition
|September 28, 2021
Summary
People intuitively understand statistical variance, but their judgments also consider stimulus variety and range, not just deviations from the average. This research explores intuitive variance judgments.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Making
- Statistical Cognition
Background:
- Statistical concepts like mean and correlation are well-studied in intuitive cognition.
- Understanding how people conceptualize and judge statistical variance is less explored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate people's intuitive understanding of variance.
- To identify factors influencing judgments of variance.
Main Methods:
- Conducted a survey to explore conceptualizations of variance.
- Performed three experimental studies to test factors affecting variance judgments.
Main Results:
- People's concepts of variance include statistical variance, pairwise distance, range, and variety.
- Judgments of variance are influenced by statistical variance, variety, and range.
Conclusions:
- People's intuitive understanding of variance is multifaceted.
- Findings can refine psychological models of variance judgment.
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