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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Oct 18, 2025

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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Quantifying Value of Hope.

Shelby D Reed1, Jui-Chen Yang1, Juan Marcos Gonzalez1

  • 1Duke Clinical Research Institute, Preference Evaluation Research Group, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.

Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
|October 1, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Patients value hope, assigning monetary value to a chance of long-term survival. However, this value diminishes when it requires a high probability of shorter survival, indicating context-dependent preferences for hope.

Keywords:
discrete-choice experimenthopepatient preferencesvalue assessment

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Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Patient-Reported Outcomes
  • Decision Analysis

Background:

  • Hope is a key component of patient-centered value frameworks.
  • Measuring the value of hope separately is crucial for economic evaluations.
  • Few studies have quantified the independent value of hope.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To generate quantitative data on the economic value of hope.
  • To assess how the probability of long-term survival influences patient preferences.
  • To understand the trade-offs between hope and other treatment attributes.

Main Methods:

  • A discrete-choice experiment was designed with 200 cancer patients.
  • Treatment alternatives varied probabilities of 10-year survival, expected survival, health status, and cost.
  • Mixed-logit and latent-class models analyzed choice data.

Main Results:

  • Participants valued a 5% and 10% chance of 10-year survival ($5,975 and $12,421, respectively).
  • A 20% chance of 10-year survival was negatively valued if it implied shorter expected survival.
  • Latent-class analysis identified four distinct patient preference groups.

Conclusions:

  • Hope has an independent positive value, separate from survival and health status.
  • The value of hope is context-dependent and not universally applicable across all patient groups or scenarios.
  • Findings support incorporating the value of hope into health economic evaluations, with careful consideration of specific contexts.