Modelling blue carbon farming opportunities at different spatial scales

Area of Science:

• Marine and climate science
• Ecosystem restoration
• Carbon sequestration

Background:

• Blue carbon ecosystems (mangroves, tidal marshes, seagrasses) are increasingly recognized for climate mitigation.
• A knowledge gap exists regarding the spatial scales required for effective carbon offsetting in these ecosystems.
• Restoration and conservation are key activities for enhancing carbon accumulation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate future carbon sequestration in Australian blue carbon ecosystems under various management scenarios.
• To assess carbon sequestration at different spatial scales (whole GBR, regional, local).
• To evaluate the monetary value of carbon sequestration for guiding blue carbon market decisions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Coastal Blue Carbon InVEST 3.7.0 model.
• Simulated different management scenarios including tidal exchange reintroduction, sea level rise, and land restoration.
• Analyzed carbon sequestration potential at whole GBR coastline, regional (14,000-16,300 ha), and local (335-370 ha) scales.

Main Results:

• Large-scale tidal marsh restoration could sequester ~800,000 tonnes CO2e by 2045, potentially valued at AU$12 million.
• Sea level rise scenarios enhance carbon sequestration opportunities.
• Regional and local projects show potential for up to 23 tonnes CO2e ha⁻¹ sequestration.

Conclusions:

• Blue carbon ecosystem restoration offers significant potential for carbon sequestration and climate mitigation.
• The economic viability of blue carbon projects is contingent on carbon pricing and funding mechanisms.
• Findings can inform future blue carbon market development and financing strategies.