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Switchover phenomenon induced by epidemic seeding on geometric networks
Gergely Ódor1, Domonkos Czifra2,3, Júlia Komjáthy4
1Information and Network Dynamics Lab, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.
Summary
Epidemic seeding matters. Concentrating initial cases on central network nodes is dangerous near critical thresholds, but uniform seeding becomes more dangerous as the epidemic grows, a switchover phenomenon amplified by network geometry.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Network Science
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Understanding how initial epidemic seeding impacts disease spread and final outcomes is crucial for effective public health interventions.
- Optimal seed configurations for maximizing infections are often unrealistic in real-world scenarios.
- Historical data motivates the study of two distinct seeding strategies: concentrated on central nodes versus uniform population spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of two distinct initial seeding strategies on epidemic size.
- To identify and characterize a potential switchover phenomenon in epidemic outcomes based on seeding strategy and epidemic parameters.
- To explore the role of network geometry in amplifying epidemic dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Simulations on real and modeled geometric metapopulation networks using data-driven and synthetic approaches.
- Mathematical analysis by mapping network epidemic processes to bond percolation.
- Comparison of epidemic final sizes resulting from concentrated versus uniform seeding strategies.
Main Results:
- A switchover phenomenon was observed: concentrated seeding is more dangerous near the epidemic's critical threshold, while uniform seeding becomes more dangerous at higher reproduction numbers.
- The geometric properties of the network amplify this switchover effect.
- Rigorous mathematical proofs confirmed the simulation findings, linking network epidemics to bond percolation.
Conclusions:
- The initial seeding strategy significantly influences epidemic outcomes, with a notable switchover phenomenon dependent on the basic reproduction number.
- Network structure, particularly its geometric features, plays a critical role in modulating epidemic spread and the effectiveness of different seeding strategies.
- These findings enhance our understanding of pandemic dynamics, explaining variations in epidemic wave sizes even with similar underlying epidemic characteristics.
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