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Decoupling without outsourcing? How China's consumption-based CO2 emissions have plateaued
Zhifu Mi1, Jiali Zheng2,3, Fergus Green4
1The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1E 7HB, UK.
Iscience
|October 8, 2021
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Environmental Economics
- Industrial Ecology
- Climate Change Policy
Background:
- China's economy since 2013, the "new normal", shows plateauing production and consumption emissions.
- This suggests a potential decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the drivers behind China's emissions trends during the "new normal".
- To analyze the role of technology and trade in China's emission patterns.
Main Methods:
- Multi-region input-output analysis to assess decoupling.
- Structural decomposition analysis to identify emission growth drivers.
Main Results:
- China's relative decoupling is primarily technology-driven, indicated by a reduced gap in technology-adjusted consumption emissions.
- Slowdown in imported emissions growth is linked to restructured import patterns and domestic demand shifts.
- Evidence suggests a move towards carbon-efficient trade rather than simple outsourcing.
Conclusions:
- Technological advancements are key to China's emission decoupling.
- Shifting domestic demand structures influence import patterns and reduce emissions transfer.
- China is moving towards less emissions-intensive international trade.
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