Enhanced computed tomography radiomics-based machine-learning methods for predicting the Fuhrman grades of renal...

To develop and test an optimal machine learning model based on the enhanced computed tomography (CT) to preoperatively predict pathological grade of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC).

A retrospective analysis of 53 pathologically confirmed cases of ccRCC was performed and 25 consecutive ccRCC cases were selected as a prospective testing set. All patients underwent routine preoperative abdominal CT plain and enhanced scans. Renal tumor lesions were segmented on arterial phase images and 396 radiomics features were extracted. In the training set, seven discrimination classifiers for high- and low-grade ccRCCs were constructed based on seven different machine learning models, respectively, and their performance and stability for predicting ccRCC grades were evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and cross-validation. Prediction accuracy and area under ROC curve were used as evaluation indices. Finally, the diagnostic efficacy of the optimal model was verified in the testing set.

The accuracies and AUC values achieved by support vector machine with radial basis function kernel (svmRadial), random forest and naïve Bayesian models were 0.860±0.158 and 0.919±0.118, 0.840±0.160 and 0.915±0.138, 0.839±0.147 and 0.921±0.133, respectively, which showed high predictive performance, whereas K-nearest neighborhood model yielded lower accuracy of 0.720±0.188 and lower AUC value of 0.810±0.150. Additionally, svmRadial had smallest relative standard deviation (RSD, 0.13 for AUC, 0.17 for accuracy), which indicates higher stability.

svmRadial performs best in predicting pathological grades of ccRCC using radiomics features computed from the preoperative CT images, and thus may have high clinical potential in guiding preoperative decision.