COVID-19 pandemic and political participation in Lagos, Nigeria

The paper investigates the relationships between COVID-19 and voter turnout. Current studies have focused on determining whether turnout during the pandemic increased the risk of more cases of or deaths from COVID-19 and others focused on the potential impact of the epidemic on voter turnout and absentee voting. The present study explores, via hierarchical multiple regression, the powers of traditional variables to predict voter turnout while controlling for opinions on the safety measures for curtailing COVID-19. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey in Lagos, the epicenter of the pandemic in Nigeria. Results indicate a general tendency to believe COVID-19 is not real in Nigeria, and most of the safety measures in fighting against the virus are not essential. COVID-19 skeptics are significantly more likely to vote during the pandemic. However, since most skeptics do not have trust in government and hence abstain, voter turnout during the pandemic is likely to be very low because people who would have voted (i.e., those having trust in government) prefer not to turnout rather than contract the virus. The paper indicates the essentials of the social connectedness and political efficacy models for exploring the connection between COVID-19 and political participation.